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There is no question that Britain will seek to reimagine its relationship with Europe should Sir Keir Starmer become the next Prime Minister of the UK. While Labour’s ‘red lines’ are clear, the party has clear ambitions on closer cooperation on issues of security, trade and migration.

LONDON – What would UK-EU relations look like under a Keir Starmer premiership?

If the polls are to be believed, the UK will have a Labour government after the General Election on 4th July. And with a sizable majority.

Embattled with a sluggish economy, high cost of living and matters like sewage in drinking water, it might be quite difficult to picture a folder titled “Relations with Europe” at the very top of Starmer’s Prime Ministerial intray. Nevertheless, there have been several recent developments that suggest a reimagined relationship with the European Union is on the minds of multiple senior Labour officials.

A brief reminiscence on Labour’s approach to Europe during the last general election campaign in 2019 contextualises where the party finds itself now. Previous leader Jeremy Corbyn had been an outspoken Eurosceptic his entire political life, while a majority of his shadow cabinet had backed the Remain campaign.

Many believed that Corbyn had unenthusiastically campaigned for Remain in 2016 – and Labour went into the 2019 General Election committing to a second referendum on a newly Labour-negotiated deal versus leaving the European Union. This put then-Shadow First Secretary of State Emily Thornberry in the rather bizarre position of promising on live television to negotiate a Brexit deal before she would then campaign against it in a second referendum.

Five years later, the Labour leadership has been careful to avoid any ambiguities this time around. Labour leader Keir Starmer, who served as Shadow Secretary for Exiting the European Union under Jeremy Corbyn, has ruled out the return of freedom of movement, as well as rejoining the customs union or the single market. These so-called ‘red lines’ mean that Labour’s European engagement needs to be imagined slightly differently.

Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy has spoken at length about what Britain’s relationship with Europe should look like. Perhaps in line with the parties’ broader strategic vision of ‘securonomics’, the first port of call for Labour in Europe would be settling some form of security agreement.

Lammy spoke in November last year to the “Labour’s Plan for Power” podcast about the need for a UK-EU defence pact – long-since marketed by European diplomats and deftly eschewed by Rishi Sunak since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Lammy reiterated the need for a “security pact” at the Munich Security Conference in February – and spoke of such an arrangement being the “centrepiece” of UK-EU relations in an essay for Foreign Affairs.

Murmurs of agreement from European diplomats suggest a security agreement would be on the cards. A security agreement with the UK would be a helpful step towards integrating the assistance given to Ukraine, with whom the EU already has such a bilateral agreement in place. Furthermore, closer cooperation with the UK – a key player in defence and member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance – would be a no-brainer for a Europe currently anxious about its immediate security and uncertain on the USA’s future commitment to NATO.

So, a security agreement, but is that it? Starmer has spoken recently about signing a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement in a bid to ease existing trade tensions for the agricultural sector – though the prospects for this look uncertain as European officials have insisted any such agreement would have to come under European Court of Justice jurisdiction, which has caused some discomfort among the Labour leadership.

Another underreported area of cooperation lies in the issue of immigration. YouGov polling from June showed immigration & asylum to be among the UK public’s top three most important issues this election. Getting the messaging right on this issue has therefore been of crucial importance to the party – but it also presents a rare opportunity for the party to pursue a relationship with Europe in a manner that remains safely behind the “red lines”. Labour Together, a think-tank with close ties to the leadership of the party, published their “Migration in the Age of Insecurity” report in April. Among the many insights is that the party should seek to build credibility on the issue of border security by pursuing a deal with European neighbours on enforcement and resettlement. The party has since committed to establishing a new Border Security Command with a mandate to work with European authorities.

While the leadership has done well to paper over the cracks that divided the party on Europe in 2016, discontent with the ‘red lines’ policy remains. Last month, the news that both the Conservative and Labour parties had rejected an EU proposal to extend free movement to 18-30 year olds caused public consternation among some senior Labour figures. London Mayor Sadiq Khan broke ranks with his parties’ leadership to speak publicly to the benefits of the EU proposal, and has suggested in an interview with POLITICO that he would continue to lobby the Labour leadership to consider it. With so much of Labour’s current agenda relying on economic growth – and Brexit perhaps the largest elephant in the room when it comes to the UK’s sluggish performance of late – those within the party pushing for something beyond the ‘red lines’ may soon find themselves among the majority. Particularly if 425 Labour MPs win election after July 4th as predicted by YouGov’s latest MRP poll.

But what about rejoining the European Union? “You must be joking!” was the reply to the suggestion from Peter Mandelson, a veteran of the New Labour years and peer in the House of Lords. But let’s not forget that Labour’s strict adherence to its red lines policy comes at a time where the highest number of Britons ever polled believe that the UK was wrong to leave the European Union – a national ‘Bregret’. A YouGov poll from last July found that were the referendum to be held again, a significant majority would vote to remain.

Despite national misgivings about Brexit, would Keir Starmer be right to open up old wounds and spend precious political capital on promising to rejoin the EU? Starmer has spoken at length about the need for a national renewal – to move the country on after 14 years of a Conservative government. Would restarting the debate that effectively dominated 5 of those years really be the best way to do that? Polls on ‘Bregret’ may be one thing, but it’s clear that Starmer believes the national priorities – and conversation – should lie elsewhere. A reimagined relationship with Europe will have to do for now.

So what do European officials think of all of this? It depends who you ask. Anonymous EU diplomats speaking to POLITICO are curiously optimistic about a Labour government, and look forward to a tabula rasa following a difficult few years of hobbled relations. Others inside the Commission suggest that the UK is far from a priority – with one source suggesting that EU officials aren’t spending too much time pouring over each of Labour’s announcements about Europe. The recent European elections have also thrown a spanner into the works. Any future Labour government will have to negotiate a relationship in the context of a bloc destabilised by an emergent far-right, particularly on the issue of immigration.

There is no question that Britain will seek to reimagine its relationship with Europe should Sir Keir Starmer become the next Prime Minister of the UK. While Labour’s ‘red lines’ are clear, the party has clear ambitions on closer cooperation on issues of security, trade and migration. Furthermore, while the ‘red lines’ policy currently serves the distinct purpose of moving the party on from its bizarre and confusing position in 2019, will it still remain fit for purpose come the next general election? With intra-party misgivings over freedom of movement well publicised, as well as stirrings of national ‘Bregret’, could the party become more ambitious and brave about the sort of relationship it wants with Europe?

Contact

Cameron Stone, Consultant at BOLDT: [email protected]