It is too early to estimate the likely priorities and direction for EU policy in the 2024-2029 mandate. We can, however, expect increasing unpredictability from a larger number of eurosceptic, right-wing populists and potential splits in the unity of the EPP, accompanied by a weakened centre-left
BRUSSELS – The answer is yes and no.
Between Thursday 6 and Sunday 9 June, almost 200 million European citizens turned out to vote for 720 MEPs to sit in the European Parliament for the next five years. So what happened?
Reading the European press in the days following the election you would be forgiven for thinking that far-right parties had swept the board, that the polling had rung true and the European Union will be heading in a new and unfamiliar direction. The reality is that while right of centre parties picked up votes and seats, and there were certainly some very dramatic national results, the pro-European centre retained its majority.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) won more than 30% of the votes, catalysing President Macron’s gamble to dissolve the French parliament and call elections for the end of this month. In Germany, the three parties of the ruling coalition (Chancellor Scholz’s SPD, the Greens and the FDP) came in third, fourth and sixth place respectively.
And yet, looking at the bigger picture across all 27 member states, the pro-European centre came out stronger than expected. Ursula von der Leyen’s centre-right EPP group increased its share of the vote and number of seats meaning, with the help of negotiation and some EU courting, she is likely to secure a second term as President of the European Commision.
Moreover, the traditional pro-European centrist alliance – EPP, S&D and Renew – retains just over 400 of the 720 Parliament seats, pointing to more policy continuity – in particular for von der Leyen’s flagship Green Deal, previously thought to be threatened – as well as less radical change in the new Parliament’s committees and structures than some commentators had anticipated.
However, the success of far-right parties in the ‘oldest’ member states such as France, Austria, Belgium, Germany, and The Netherlands cannot be dismissed and in that regard the winds have changed.
Whilst voters cast their ballots based on national or even local issues and these results can be seen as judgement on the popularity of Europe’s diverse national governments, the surge in popularity for right-wing popular politicians and parties cannot be ignored, and is a Europe-wide phenomenon.
