News & Insights

BRUSSELS & LONDON – Brussels is buzzing with talk over who will get the top EU positions following recent elections. The centre-right EPP made electoral gains and now have Ursula von der Leyen seeking a second term at the head of the Commission and Roberta Metsola aiming to remain as President of the European Parliament. But, right-wing successes are challenging the mainstream majority, and shifting alliances could yet reshape EU power dynamics and influence key appointments.

TUG-OF-WAR OVER TOP EU JOBS

In Brussels, all eyes this week turned to the allocation of top EU positions following the recent European Parliament elections. As Ursula von der Leyen seeks a second term as President of the European Commission, decisions loom over who will take the Presidency of the European Parliament and the European Council, and the office of the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Roberta Metsola, Charles Michel, and Josep Borrell currently hold these roles, respectively, with only Metsola seeking to stay on.

Despite significant gains by right-wing factions in the elections, mainstream pro-European groups – the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe – still command a working majority. The EPP, in particular, has bolstered its presence, becoming a more formidable force in the new parliament. The pressing questions at the end of last week were: how the EPP would use their strength and what they would ask for; and whether enough of the unprecedented number of Non-aligned and Independent MEPs could decide to join political groupings and ultimately change the balance of power?

EPP OVERREACH?

The week began with an informal European Council (EUCO) meeting in Brussels, where EU leaders convened to deliberate on the distribution of the senior posts. Anticipation was high that a swift decision would favour von der Leyen, enabling her to start shaping her Commission over the summer. However, the EPP’s demands extended beyond retaining von der Leyen. They also pushed for Metsola to remain as President of the Parliament and proposed a time-limited term for the S&D’s candidate for President of the Council, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, suggesting he step aside for an EPP candidate after 2.5 years. This overreach fractured the consensus and the Socialists halted the meeting without any appointments being finalised.

The S&D’s irritation was palpable, yet it was eclipsed by the ire and frustration of Giorgia Meloni, who was literally excluded from crucial negotiations. Meloni, representing the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), perceived her group’s electoral successes as undervalued and her voice marginalised.

SHIFTING ALLIANCES AND POWER DYNAMICS

As the week progressed, some Non-aligned and Independent MEPs aligned with established groups, catapulting the ECR to the third-largest bloc in Parliament with an unprecedented 83 seats.

This development is significant; the third-largest group often holds the key to legislative power, often acting as the ‘kingmaker’ for the larger EPP and S&D factions. The liberal ‘centrist’ Renew Europe group, dominated for the last 8 years by members of President Macron’s party, has long held this coveted position.

Renew had already lost 21 MEPs in the elections, then five Volt MEPs – three German and two Dutch – said they plan to join the Greens/EFA rather than Renew, further cementing the ECR’s influential position. Meloni’s ECR now stands at the centre of European power politics.

MELONI’S GAMBIT

Meloni’s predicament is that she is one of just two ECR heads of government among the 27 member states, the other being Petr Fiala, the Czech PM. So how can she leverage the gains made by her political group when it comes to the handing out of the top jobs?

Perhaps the most radical move would be for the ECR to throw in its lot with the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, dominated by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) members. Recall Meloni made a (video) appearance at the conference of far-right leaders in Madrid on 20 May to rally the faithful to the cause. A possible merger between ECR and ID, while unlikely, would most probably see just the RN MEPs joining, adding some 30 to the existing 83 – still creating a formidable bloc of MEPs. This would be conditional on the RN winning the French national elections.

Such a coalition would wield significant power, and be guaranteed to upset the carefully calibrated institutional balance, with potentially very serious consequences for the functioning of the EU legislative process, if it so chose to flex its muscles. Can they do a deal? And if so, would Meloni choose to be the junior partner in such an alliance where the RN MEPs would outnumber the Italian ECR MEP delegation?

Meloni has worked hard over the past 18 months to establish herself at the centre of European politics. Exacting revenge on the political mainstream for excluding her from the top jobs carve-out compromise and other appointments by joining forces with Le Pen could simply see her and her party cast out to the outer fringes of European politics for years to come.

Meloni knows this, but she will be hoping that her fellow leaders are worried enough to give her something, to be absolutely certain. As Europe navigates this intricate political landscape, the stakes are high, with the EU’s future equilibrium hanging in the balance.

So, between now and the EUCO meeting on 27/28 June, Meloni will surely be looking for far-reaching concessions. These could include, for example, securing an ECR Vice President position in the new Commission (a first) plus a major economic or competition portfolio for the Italian Commissioner, further concessions on curbing migration into the EU, a watering down or withdrawal of Green Deal legislation, and, most likely, additional generous terms on the disbursement of NextGenerationEU funds for Italy.

Contact

John Duhig, Partner at BOLDT: [email protected]

Jon Rhodes, Partner at BOLDT: [email protected]