Beyond the high-stakes battle for European Commission president, with Ursula von der Leyen fighting to retain her post amid a projected rightward lurch, the European elections will cast a long shadow over national politics and Brussels’ policy agenda.
BRUSSELS & LONDON – Over four days from this Thursday, 373 million people across 27 European countries will have the opportunity to elect 720 representatives for the 2024-29 term – the 10th Assembly – of the European Parliament.
This is the first ‘Brussels’ vote since the pandemic, which signalled the current economic downturn, and the first since the Russia invasion of Ukraine which only made the cost of living crisis worse and heralded a new era of security concerns. But, numerous national and local elections over recent months have suggested that voters are likely to shift away from liberal and centre-left parties, with the centre-right, ultraconservative and far-right parties expected to make big gains.
Whilst the European People’s Party (EPP) looks set to remain the largest and most powerful group in Parliament, and the Socialist and Democrats (S&D) will likely hold on to second place, everything else is up for grabs. President Macron’s centrist/liberal Renew Europe (RE) is expected to lose seats, as are the Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA), and the numerous and various parties of the right and far-right are set to be the beneficiaries of a disenchanted electorate. The European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR), led by Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, or even the most right-wing group, the Identity and Democracy Group (ID), could overtake RE as the third largest group in Parliament.
We won’t know the final make up of the parliament until early next week, and even then there will probably be last minute manoeuvring as some new MEPs make late decisions on which grouping they will join. But we can be almost certain that the new parliament will be more fragmented and this in turn will make coalition-building even harder, and have implications for the EU policy agenda over the next five years.
For example, a possible partnership between the EPP and ECR could lead to a significant rightward shift in public policies and not necessarily in the pro-business sense. This would likely also include issues prioritised by the far-right, such as migration and, to a lesser extent, the environment.
If Ursula von der Leyen is reappointed for a second term as Commission President, she will likely be hesitant to make dramatic changes to climate policy, as the Green Deal is the hallmark achievement of her first term and is frequently cited by her as Europe’s growth strategy. However, the EPP’s manifesto already indicates a willingness to reconsider parts of the strategy designed to make the EU climate neutral by 2050, emphasising “pragmatic solutions, not ideological ones” – very much the language of politicians seeking to dilute not strengthen policy measures. So even if the election results don’t fully match the polls, and the current three-way de facto governing coalition – EPP, S&D and the liberal Renew Europe group – survives, the perceived threat from the ECR and ID Groups has already led to a rightward shift in the mainstream policy agenda.
